Quarter Bundle Lot

September 15, 2008 by  
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[mage lang="en|fr|es|en" source="answers"]Quarter Bundle Lot[/mage]

How to play the Canadian banking crisis for two fast

Everyone thinks they are immune to the current financial crisis.

Nobody thinks they are doomed to failure.

I am talking about Canadians, of course.

See, recently, I read a lot about the superiority of Canadian banking system. And, of course, otherwise my instincts prompted to seek a way to make money Canadian banks.

Over the past 18 months, my readers have had the opportunity to do 432% of Lehman, 162% when Allied Capital came clean, and 220% at the PNC Financial ... This month we are about to make money following the collapse of the bank.

And I will give you the opportunity to join them.

If you think that Canada escaped the downward trend of the U.S. bank, think again. While the country may not have fallen headfirst into subprime mortgages, it does dip heavily on products from the risks of derivatives. The influence he had on generated impressive returns on equity in good times, but who use it are established at the end of the equity today.

The shareholders of "security" of the Bank of Canada should rethink their loyalty. Your credit crisis threatens virtually guarantees a dividend Court. And it is our role as a catalyst for action short play this month - offers a opportunity for profit potential of 200%.

secret accounts have not yet erased the benefits of Canadian banks - such as banking U.S. - because Canadians are not yet accounted for the arrival of the tsunami of consumer mortgage loans, and losses of companies loan.

Here's how responsible credit portfolios with a hidden risk.

The Basics bank accounts

Bank shareholders to leverage their capital by borrowing short term, mainly depositors. Your bank account is an advantage for you, but is a responsibility by your bank. For every dollar of capital, shareholders of banks to borrow 15, 20 or even $ 30 Lenders Senior - otherwise they could not afford to have huge portfolios of loans and securities. Here's the problem: shareholders of the Bank and agents (managers of banks) pay other people's money. Thus, bankers are more flexible than they were willing to pay their own economies.

The accounting process for determining the profits of commercial banks is inherently speculative, too. Banks book in advance profit on each new loan they make, but a little credit because if you're wondering what has killed most of the S & P 500 final, here's the answer: Banks and brokerages to put most of the benefits in loans and securities purchased at the peak of the bubble.

Banks asked to lend much money to all borrowers. But someone sure he was lying, because they take charges against these loans and securities more vintage left and right. And the willingness of the industry for loan losses, which is the most important - and unpredictable territory.

Add a few more explosive ingredients, such as deposit insurance, for central loans bank loan syndication, and securitization and the left is a system for which the volume of sales - not management - is the No. 1 priority.

Those who say that the banking system is well capitalized - including those who designed the de-stressing

Many bank shares remain in a fragile state. This month we buy puts on the Canadian side to fall.

Introduction of put options

As you know, an easy way to play the reserve is via put options. Here is a brief overview of how ...

puts are low risk, highly leveraged so you can make money when stocks decline.

For example - when a stock drops 5% day options can be 50%. When large drops occur, the places you can go to hundreds of percent in hours.

And because they are a limited risk, if you wrong, you never lose more than they put in place.

My point is - there is no more easy, safer and faster to obtain huge profits and low stock not through the options.

That said, we will take a look at how you can use to make money in Canadian banks. Firstly, in terms of "macro ..."

The Canadian banking system has received praise for avoiding direct exposure to the Forbidden fruit more appealing: The products and mortgages risk, credit cards, loans for leveraged buyouts, loans to finance the purchase of real estate company crazy.

Press Financial loves Canadian banks. On May 19, the Wall Street Journal published an article suggesting that these banks are a model of sustainability and have now opportunity to buy American banks on the cheap:

"Not long ago, Canadian banks are considered like legs slow, provincial, and too conservative to flourish in the global surge in prices in financial institutions. Now that U.S. banks and Europe is reeling from losses on loans and government control over the face and ownership, Canada 's six largest banks are seen as a possible model for the battered financial institutions. million dollars (2.5 billion dollars over 85% of assets in the country's banking system. In general, these banks took an intelligent decision insurance companies and other institutions.

But this does not mean that Canadian banks have no credit risk. On the other hand, the abundance. Mark accounting market has not reduce the profits of Canadian banks, because Canadians have not yet accounted for the impending wave of mortgage consumers and loss of business loans.

Will the end of 2009. It is impossible to avoid. And to give you a perspective on how quickly loans grew on the banks of Canada, the table below shows that assets in the six largest Canadian banks increased by C $ 1.3 billion in October 1999 and more or less constant C since 1999.

The asset growth, even if it is accompanied by an increase in equity, is always a risky proposition for banks. In When the loans were made, all seems well. Then, when a severe recession and a series of dramatic loss of credit starts, market value loan portfolios may soon fall by 5% or 10%, from the banking system on the brink of bankruptcy. Insolvency is when the value of assets is less than the value of liabilities. banking regulations will not like this scenario and the pressure of the weakest banks to increase capital very expensive, dilutive to protect lenders highest level, including depositors to suffer losses.

Canada has entered which will eventually be a cycle of huge credit losses, and right now is more, banks in Canada could easily lose its impeccable reputation. Until mid 2008, the Canadian economy was booming. Its mines, energy and manufacturing sectors are first class and all other sectors has been taken along the promenade.

But the wheels fell through last fall. According to Statistics Canada, the unemployment rate was 8.4% in May - the highest in 11 years. Ontario, with its heavy industrial base and its links with businesses in the Detroit Auto Three killed, has lost 234,000 Jobs in Ontario, 14% of its workforce in all cars. Alberta has also slowed dramatically. A year ago, Alberta, all workers Alberta's unemployment has almost doubled between May 2008-May 2009 to 6.6% and headed over.

For Canada, this credit cycle will probably be worse than the end 1980. According to RBC Capital Markets annualized provision for loan losses across the Canadian banking system has reached 2.88% of all loans in 1988. From April 2009 this figure was only 0.77%. During the next year or two, provisions for loan losses should easily triple or quadruple which penetrate deeply into profits and capital ... sending the worst actions of Canadian banks down.

So how do you play?

First symbol and click on "Options" in the top left under "Courses".

You see all available options selling the stock. Choose a good, you can double your money, because these stocks are declining.


Dan Amoss

About the Author

Dan Amoss is the editor of Strategic Short Report and a contributor to The Penny Sleuth, which offers unbiased commentary from expert analysts and authors about penny stocks.


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